3D彩票

全职猎人102人均GDP仍没有达到1.2万美元

LAIYUAN:ANHUAXINWEN   2019-12-26 16:25  BIANJI:ANHUAXINWEN  RENQI:

2020NIANZHENGQUANSHICHANGDEGUANJIANCI:ZAIPINGHENG | QINGHEQUANZIBENNIANDUCELVE

3D彩票HUIGUGUOQULIANGNIAN,JINGJIMIANLINFUZAYANJUNDEXINGSHI。ZHENGCEDIAOKONGMIANLINQIANSUOWEIYOUDETIAOZHAN,WENZENGZHANG、DIAOJIEGOUHEFANGFENGXIANXUYAODUOFANGZONGHE、DONGTAIQUANHENG。GUSHIYECHUXIANLE2018NIANXIONGSHIZHUANZHI2019NIANNIUSHI,LEISIYUZHEFANPAODEQINGJING。CISHICIKE,SHICHANGRENGRANDUIYUZHONGZHANGQIJINGJICUNZAIHENDUODANYOU、DUIZHENGCEDEFANGXIANGCUNZAIBUFENYIWEN,BINGYOUCIDUIGUPIAOSHICHANGCHANSHENGLEBUTONGDEKANFA。ZHANWANG2020NIAN,RUHEKANDAI“JINGJIYUGUSHI”、“SHOUYIYUFENGXIAN”、“FENGGEYUXINGYE”DEGUANXI,WOMENRENWEI“ZAIPINGHENG”HUOXUSHIGUANCHUANQUANNIANDEYIGEGUANJIANCI。

PART 1、经济与股市的再平衡

一方面,中国经济增速中长期下行的动能越来越明显

ZHANGQILAIKAN,RENKOUWENTIRIYIYANZHONG。WEIFUXIANLAOTEZHENGMINGXIAN,RENJUNGDPRENGMEIYOUDADAO1.2WANMEIYUAN,ERLAODONGNIANLINGRENKOU2012NIANJIUDADAOFENGZHI,QIEYUJIWEILAI30NIANFUYANGBIJIANGCONGMUQIANDE0.5SHANGSHENGZHI1,CONGERDAOZHIQIANZAIZENGZHANGLVZAIXIAJIANG。

3D彩票ZHONGDUANQILAIKAN,HONGGUANGANGGANLVGAOQI。GENJUGUOJIQINGSUANYINXINGTONGJI,ZHONGGUOHONGGUANGANGGANLV08NIANWEI142%,18NIANDIDADAO254%,TONGQIMEIGUOJINWEI226%。ZENGSUFANGMIAN,GUOQU10NIANMEIGUOHONGGUANGANGGANLVSHANGSHENGCAI69%,ERZHONGGUOQUEDAFUSHANGSHENG112%,CONGERDAOZHIZONGLIANGCIJIKONGJIANZAIJIJUSHOUZHAI。

另一方面,股票市场的韧性和活力展现出与宏观经济独立的一面,其来源于两个驱动力:

资本市场战略地位得到前所未有的肯定和提高

2019NIANZHENGZHIJUXUEXIHUIYITICHU“ZIBENSHICHANGZAIJINRONGYUNXINGZHONGJUYOUQIANYIFAERDONGQUANSHENDEZUOYONG”。ZAIZHEIGESHIDIANTICHUZHEIGELUNDIAO,SHIJIYUCHUANTONGDEYIJIANJIERONGZIWEIZHUDEZIYUANPEIZHIFANGSHIMIANLINZHEQIANSUOWEIYOUDETIAOZHAN。JUTIBIAOXIANZAILIANGGEFANGMIAN:

YIFANGMIAN,YIYINXINGWEIDAIBIAODECHUANTONGJINRONGJIGOUGUODUODIFUWUYUDIFANGZHENGFUHEGUOQI,GUOWUYUANDUOCIYAOQIUYINXINGYEJIADAFUWUSHITIHEMINQIDELIDU,SHOUXIAOYOUXIAN。LINGYIFANGMIAN,ZHONGGUOZAIGUANJIANLINGYUHEHUANJIEBEIKABOZIXIANXIANGFEICHANGYANZHONG,YUANYOUDERONGZIMOSHIBUNENGHENHAODEDANDANGZHICHICHUANGXINDEZHONGREN。ZHENGYINRUCI,WOMENKANDAOZHENGFUKUAISUTUICHUFUCHICHUANGXINHESHITIDEZIBENSHICHANGGAIGEJUCUO,JIAKUAITUICHUKECHUANGBAN、FANGSONGBINGGOUZHONGZUHEZAIRONGZIZHENGCE、WAIZIKAIFANGDENGJIHUOZIBENSHICHANGDEJUCUO。ZHONGGUOYAOSHIXIANWEIDAFUXINGDEMUBIAO,BIXUYAOYOUYIGEJIANQUAN、YOUXIAO、CHONGMANHUOLIDEZIBENSHICHANG,ZHEISHIKEGUANDELISHIYAOQIU。

经济发展的结构性对股市影响愈发明显

YISHIZHONGGUOJINGJIYIQIEHUANZHIXIAOFEIZHUQUDONG。2010ZHI2018NIAN,SHIJIGDPCONG10.6%CHIXUXIAXINGZHI6.6%,DANZUIZHONGXIAOFEIZHICHUDUIGDPZENGZHANGDEGONGXIANLVQUECONG44.9%SHANGSHENGZHI76.2%,TONGSHIDISANCHANYEDUIGDPZENGZHANGDEGONGXIANLVYECONG39%DAFUTISHENGZHI59.7%。ERSHIXINGYENEIJIZHONGDUZAIJIASUTISHENG。2015ZHI2018NIAN,YIZHUYINGSHOURUCESUAN,BAIJIUXINGYEDECR10CONG19%TISHENGZHI33%,DIANZIXINGYEDECR10CONG9%TISHENGZHI15%,YOUXIDECR2CONG52%TISHENGZHI67%。ZONGTILAIKAN,GENGUOWANGXIANGBI,WOMENCHUZAIJINGJIZHENGTIZENGSUHUANMANXIAXING,JIEGOUBIANHUAN、XIAOLVSHANGXINGDEJIEDUAN。

综上所述,宏观经济中长期的低迷不代表股票市场没有明显的机会,因为影响股市最关键因素是经济的效率(主要体现为企业的ROE的高低)和流动性的多寡。

RIMEIDELISHIJINGYANGAOSUWOMEN,RIBENZAI1968NIAN-1977NIANQIJIANJINGJIMIANLINZENGSUHUANDANG,SHITIGDPZHONGSHUCONG10%XIAHUAZHI5%,ERRIJING225ZHISHUQIJIANQUESHANGZHANGLE250%;MEIGUO2008NIANJINRONGWEIJIYILAI,SHITIGDPZENGZHANGHETONGZHANGYEMEIYOUDAFUGAISHAN,DANSHIBIAOPU500QUESHANGZHANGLE250%ZUOYOU。

PART 2、收益与风险的再平衡

从静态来看,ERP是判断中长期大类资产(股债)相对吸引力的关键指标

2018NIANDI,JIYUWANDEQUANADEGUZHAISHOUYICHA(ERP)WEI4.4%,CHUZAIGUOQU15NIANLISHIZUIGAOWEI。YEJIUSHISHUOGUSHIDETOUZIJIAZHIXIANGBIZHAISHISHIGUOQU15NIANZUIHAODESHIHOU。ERMUQIANERPJINGLIGUOQUYINIANDEBIANDONGYIJINGHUIGUIZHI2.5FUJIN,CHUZAI65%FENWEISHUFUJIN。YIWEIZHEXIANGBIGUOWANGLISHI,GUSHIXIYINLIRENGCHUYUZHONGWEISHUPIANSHANG,DANXIANGBI2018NIANDI,FENGXIANSHOUYIBIZAIHUIGUI。

从动态来看,历史证明A股的阶段性涨跌往往以估值驱动为主

3D彩票SHUJUBIAOMING,SHANGZHENGZONGZHIZAISHANGZHANGJIEDUAN(PINGJUN18GEYUE)、ZHENDANGJIEDUAN(PINGJUN31GEYUE)HEXIADIEJIEDUAN(PINGJUN12GEYUE),GUZHIDEGONGXIANLVPINGJUNCHAOGUO90%,YINGLIDEGONGXIANLVJINBUZU10%。2019NIANYEBULIWAI,JIEZHIDAO12YUEZHONG,ZHANGFUQIANSHIDEXINGYEPINGJUNSHOUYICHAOGUO45%,QIZHONGDIANZI、JIADIAN、JISUANJI、YIYAOHETONGXINDEYEJIWEIFUGONGXIAN,GUZHIBIANHUAGONGXIANLEQUANBUZHANGFU。

展望2020年的估值驱动力,根据内部信用-过剩流动性周期模型,我们判断相较于2019的信用和流动性双拐点,2020年是均衡之年,因为信用和流动性预期只存在小幅的纠偏。具体如何判断2020年信用-过剩流动性趋势?

关于信用(社融的增速),我们预期会延续小幅走弱的态势

CONGDINGXINGDEJIAODULAIKAN,2008NIANJINRONGWEIJIZHIHOU,GUONEIDEXINYONGKUOZHANGQUDAOZHUYAOYIKAODICHANHEJIJIAN。YOUYUDICHANCHANYELIANDUIXINYONGDEGONGXIANLVCHAOGUOYIBAN,SUOYILISHISHANGZAIDICHANTOUZIXIAXINGZHOUQI,JISHIYOUJIJIANDEDUICHONG,SHERONGZENGSUYEJUNBIAOXIANWEIBUTONGCHENGDUDEXIAHUA。CONGDINGLIANGDEJIAODULAIKAN,2020NIANDEDICHANTOUZIYUJIHUIXIAOFUXIAHUA,ZHONGSHUCONG10%XIAJIANGZHI7%ZUOYOU,ZHUYAOSHOUZHIYUTUDIGOUZHIDEHUILUO。JINGUANJIJIANTOUZISHOUYIYUZHUANXIANGZHAIEDUKUODAHEZIBENJINDEZHENGCEFANGSONG,YUQIHUICONGZHONGSHU4%HUISHENGZHI8%SHANGXIA。

关于过剩流动性,我们预期仍处于缓慢堆积的过程中

CONGDINGXINGDEJIAODULAIKAN,XIANGBI2019NIAN,WEILAIYINIANZHONGGUOHUOBIZONGLIANGKUANSONGQUSHIBUBIAN,LIDUJIANGLVEWEIXIAJIANG。ZHUYAOSHOUZHIYULIANGFANGMIAN,YISHI2020NIANJINGJIYALIXIANGBI2019NIANYOUSUOHUANHE,ERSHIMINGNIANCUNZAIFEIDIANXING“ZHIZHANG”DEHONGGUANHUANJING,WOMENJIANGZHONGDIANGUANCHAZHUZHOUQIHEJINGJIXINGSHI。YINCIWOMENKANDAO2019NIANZHONGYANGJINGJIGONGZUOHUIYIDEDINGDIAO,ZHONGXINHUIDAOLE2015NIANDIDETIFA——HUOBIZHENGCEYAOLINGHUOSHIDU。CONGDINGLIANGDEJIAODULAIKAN,YINGXIANGGUOSHENGLIUDONGXINGYUQIDEZHIBIAOSHISHERONGYUMINGYIGDPZHICHA,DANGQIANZHIWEI4%,GAOYU2017-2018NIANDEJUNZHI1.9%,WEISHANGYILUN2014-2015NIANZHOUQIDEYIBAN。

PART 3、风格与行业的再平衡

2019年的证券市场一个很明显的特征:极端分化

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